Can Clottey make Pacquiao submit?

Look for Manny Pacquiao to fold under the heavy pressure from Joshua Clottey on March 13th. When this fight was first signed, I thought this would be simple cut and dried case of Pacquiao being too good for Clottey. But after seeing how good Clottey is looking in training and doing some research into his last fight against Miguel Cotto, I think Clottey is going to batter Pacquiao like a rag doll and ultimately make him submit or have his trainer Freddie Roach step in for him to yank Pacquiao from the fight.

It’s going to be a shocking loss, to be sure, but when you look at how big and powerful Clottey is, and how much motivation he’ll have for this fight, it’s not going to be that surprising. Pacquiao is already rich beyond belief in the Philippines, and doesn’t need to work another day in his life if he doesn’t want to.

In contrast, Clottey is still a struggling fighter and has yet to get the huge paydays that Pacquiao has grown accustomed to getting. As a result, Clottey is going to be fighting at a level that we’ve never seen him fight before. If any of you are familiar with the James Buster Douglas vs. Mike Tyson fight in 1990, you’ll notice that Douglas, a good fighter, fought well beyond his normal ability in that fight and surprised Tyson, dominating most of the fight with his high energy attack and eventually taking Tyson out in the 10th round.

Douglas probably would have lost to Tyson under normal circumstances, but the motivation and adrenalin that Douglas was able to summon up for that one fight alone was enough for him to pull off the upset and capture Tyson’s IBF/WBA/WBC heavyweight titles. Unfortunately for Douglas, he wasn’t able to sustain this high level for long, as he was immediately beaten in his next fight against Evander Holyfield, losing a 3rd round knockout in October 1990.

But that doesn’t matter for Clottey, just as long as he fights well above his ability in this one fight, I think he can beat Pacquiao, capture his WBO title and set himself up for big money in a rematch with the Filipino star in the future. Clottey has everything to gain in this fight, while Pacquiao is likely looking past this bout for a potential big money bout against the winner of the May 1st bout between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Shane Mosley.

For Clottey to beat Pacquiao, he’s going to have to stay off the ropes, resist covering up for long stretches at a time and to make sure he goes after Pacquiao constantly to try and wear him down. Clottey will have to also depend on his chin to be able to take a certain amount of punishing shots from Pacquiao, because he won’t get far if he’s getting dropped left and right like Pacquiao’s recent victims Ricky Hatton and Miguel Cotto. Those fighters were never able to really challenge Pacquiao because they were almost immediately in trouble in the fight and found themselves getting knocked down repeatedly.

Clottey vs. Pacquiao bout is just a waste of time

We already know the likely outcome of this fight. Anything can happen when it comes to boxing, but everything is set up for Pacquiao to win. This can be a real easy fight for Pacquiao. Although Clottey is a solid defensive fighter who does a good job of shielding himself from harm with his Winky Wright like defense, he is flat footed and like recent Pacquiao opponents, or actually like most of the opponents Pacquiao has faced. Clottey also likes to press forward which suits perfectly with Pacquiao’s plans. The Ghanaian warrior simply does not have the style to beat Pacquiao, and he also lacks the speed and power to seriously leave an imprint on Pacquiao. I can visualize Manny bouncing around the ring moving in and out, while Clottey slowly drags his feet forward and will end up getting tagged by the much quicker Pacquiao all night long. Clottey is far from weak, but he does not possess devastating knock out power so there is no threat there. Although Clottey is the bigger fighter coming into this match up, he may not even get the chance to impose his size on Manny. And I have a suspicion even if Clottey makes it a close fight and it goes the full 12 rounds, the judges will award Pacquiao with the automatic decision because of the politics of the sport. 

Another strike against Joshua is his level of opposition. The only marquee names on his resume include Cotto, Judah, Baldomir, and Margarito. Clottey has not really stood out against the few good opponents he has faced. He basically stopped fighting against Margarito after he broke his hands mid way through the fight, he lost composure and could not control his emotions and got disqualified against Baldomir. He had a decent showing against a faded Zab Judah, who by the way was coming off a knock out loss to Miguel Cotto, a sound defeat by the hands of Floyd Mayweather, and some inner turmoil and inactivity. Then we have the late great Diego Corrales. The problem with the Corrales victory is the proud warrior was only a shell of his former self and was moving up from his natural light weight class up to welterweight.

This isn’t to knock Joshua Clottey because he is a tough fighter and possess qualities that make him a solid contender. But you can surely question his status as an elite fighter, and seeing as he is coming off a loss, he probably shouldn’t be stepping in the ring with the likes of Manny Pacquiao. If you’re Manny, why fight a guy who recently lost to the guy you just beat?

Why even put this on ppv? Why waste the time of boxing fans putting this together? Especially in wake of the elections going on in the Philippines, and with the recent leg injury to Pacquiao suffered in camp, wouldn’t it be best to put a halt to everything and wait for things to play out? Ok you couldn’t secure a fight with Mayweather, so maybe you can find another fight right? Like maybe against the likes of Shane Mosley, or Paul Williams, or even Yuri Foreman. The Foreman fight would work out because he is a Top Rank fighter so Arum can make more money off that and keep the cash in-house just like he would with Clottey. Also in fighting Foreman, Pacquiao would also being chasing history with the 8th title. Or you could just let Pacquiao rest and handle the elections and try to make a fight with Mayweather later in the year.

Apparently, Mr. Arum had other plans. And lets say the impossible happens and Pacquiao loses to Joshua Clottey March 13th what happens then? Clottey vs. the winner of Mayweather/Mosley? Do you know how much money Arum would lose out on? The dream match everyone had hoped for between Mayweather and Pacquiao probably wouldn’t even happen and boxing would suffer another huge blow.

Forget Kobe-LeBron, the best Finals would be Melo-LeBron

If we polled every NBA fan out there and asked them for their dream Finals matchup, I'm guessing about 90 percent would say "Lakers-Cavs." This has been the case for the past two seasons. Once we got nostalgia out of the way with the Boston-L.A. Finals in 2008, everyone's attention turned to the Kobe-LeBron battle for the "best player alive" title. I'm not knocking a potential Lakers-Cavs Finals. I'm just saying that we might be ignoring a better series.

Did you watch last Thursday's Cavs-Nuggets game? LeBron James casually threw up a 43-point, 15-assist, 13-rebound triple-double, only to be outdone by Carmelo Anthony, who hit the game-winner, right in LeBron's mug for a 118-116 overtime victory on the road at The Q. It wasn't just a good game, it was an epic game -- about as good and dramatic and riveting as a regular season game can possibly get.

It was so good that it had players like Dwyane Wade and Chris Paul tweeting about it a few minutes after it ended. After the game I remember thinking, "What could possibly be better than watching seven games of a high-stakes Bron and Melo duel for the championship?" The answer is: nothing.

What made last Thursday's game such an instant classic is that LeBron and Melo were both tasked with checking each other. That is key. Bill Russell vs. Wilt Chamberlain was a great rivalry not only because Boston and Philadelphia were always battling for league supremacy, but also because Wilt and Russ fought from tipoff until the game-ending buzzer. It's something we can't say for Magic vs. Bird. It's also something we can't say about a potential Kobe vs. LeBron battle. Save for maybe the last five minutes of the game, we wouldn't see Bron and Kobe squaring off against each other too often. Nothing can approach a Lakers-Cavs Final when it comes to star power and the drama of the world's two best players trying to settle the "Who's The Man?" debate. That's abstract stuff, though. I'm talking about something very tangible, I'm talking aesthetics. A Cavs-Nuggets Final means that we'd get Bron vs. Melo -- literally -- for 40 to 45 minutes a game over an entire series. Think about that.

Six years ago, around this time, Melo and Bron were rookies battling each other for the Rookie of the Year award. It was the rivalry that was supposed to transfix the NBA public for the next 15 years. LeBron vs. Carmelo. They would have been picks 1 and 2, if Joe Dumars hadn't made the worst Draft selection of the new millennium. It never happened, though. Gradually, LBJ kind of left Melo in his dust. It became a LeBron vs. Kobe or a LeBron vs. D-Wade thing. Melo's Denver squads were always competitive, but he was always out there in the margins, sort of hovering right outside of the "elite of the elite" club. This is the first year that someone could argue Melo as the league's MVP and do it with a straight face. This is where we always thought we'd be: LeBron and Carmelo leading elite teams and playing better inidividual basketball than just about every other human being on the planet.

Last Thursday's game was a bit of a coronation for the LeBron-Carmelo rivalry, because, to be honest, their head-to-head games up to that point had been underwhelming. Before Melo's 40-point gem, he averaged just under 20 ppg in his previous 11 games against the Cavs. LeBron wasn't much better, averaging a pedestrian (for him) 23 ppg in those same 11 games. Neither of them shot particularly well and none of the games was as hyper-competitive as last week's classic. Thursday's game featured two virtuosos engaging in one-upmanship that we haven't seen in a while. Take any position battle -- whether it's Kobe vs. Wade or Chris Paul versus Deron Williams -- and it'd still fall short of the epic battle LeBron and Carmelo waged. Each time down the court in that fourth quarter we saw two of the league's three best players stare at each other and go to work. One was saying, "I'm not going to let you score on me" and the other was saying, "There's nothing you can do to stop me." And it's true isn't it?

Late in the fourth quarter, Melo had Bron isolated on the left wing. He jab-stepped toward the lane and then, on a dime, spun back to his left and dropped in a finger roll. The play was mildly embarrassing for Bron, but he casually jogged up the court with a "What am I supposed to do? He's Carmelo" look on his face and tried to get him back. There's something very compelling about two of the best players to ever pick up a basketball being virtually helpless when faced with the task of stopping each other. I want to see that as often as possible.

Imagine a seven games of Bron vs. Melo for all the chips. It could happen. It should happen. It needs to happen. Now let's get Melo a puppet and start the campaign.

HBO 24/7 series for Floyd and Mosley bout

For Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Shane Mosley fans, they’ll be able to see an HBO Mayweather-Mosley 24/7 series for the May 1st mega fight at the MGM Grand, in Las Vegas, Nevada. The 24/7 series, which are usually very popular and powerful tools in hyping fights to the casual boxing fans of the sport, will go a long ways towards making the Mayweather-Mosley fight a huge pay-per-view moneymaker for the fighter. Sadly, the same thing can’t be said of the bout between World Boxing Organization welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao vs. Joshua Clottey on March 13th.

That fight, which pits the well known Pacquiao vs. a mostly obscure fighter, will receive a single special on HBO, called “Road to Dallas,” which will air immediately after the March 6th broadcast of Vic Darchinyan vs. Rodrigo Guerrero. That’s certainly disappointing news for Pacquiao fans, because it will probably limit how many of the casual boxing fans tune in to see the Pacquiao-Clottey fight.

The Pacquiao-Clottey fight more than the Mayweather-Mosley bout would seem to really need the HBO 24/7 series quite badly to introduce fans to Clottey, and try to make a fight, which on paper appears to be a huge mismatch, into a more appealing one for the unknowing fans.

ESPN writer Dan Rafael says that Mayweather and Mosley will start a three city promotional tour to hype the fight. The tour will begin on March 2nd at the Nokia Theater in Times Square in New York, and then on March 3rd it will move to the Lincoln Theater in Washington, D.C. The final city of the tour will be on March 4th at the NOKIA Plaza in L.A. Live in Los Angeles. The tour will be free to the public, which is great news for fans of both fighters.

Pacquiao - NO chance against Floyd

Pacquiao would likely have no chance against Mayweather, and would probably get picked apart. It’s good that Pacquiao was spared having to face that kind of a boxer, because by not fighting Mayweather – or even Shane Mosley or Timothy Bradley – Pacquiao can probably retire on a strong note by maybe beating up Miguel Cotto again for the WBA light middleweight title.

There’s also a fight against Edwin Valero, a straight ahead fighter that seems to be made for Pacquiao’s style of fighting. Mayweather, though, would probably be a living nightmare for Pacquiao. Both bigger and faster than Pacquiao, Mayweather would have almost every advantage you could think of in a fight against Pacquiao.

It wouldn’t matter what Pacquiao’s trainer Freddie Roach came up with to beat Mayweather, it wouldn’t likely work at all. Mayweather would beat Pacquiao down, hitting him each time Pacquiao tried to throw one of his shots. Pacquiao wouldn’t be able to take advantage of any of Mayweather’s mistakes, because he wouldn’t be making any.

Mayweather wouldn’t be initiating the action like Pacquiao victims Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton and Miguel Cotto. Instead, it would be Pacquiao who be forced to come at Mayweather and take his pin point shots to the head. I think it would be just an awful fight for Pacquiao. And what would be really bad is all the people that would see the fight.

The entire world would watch it, and remember it long after. Roach wouldn’t have a clue what to do to help Pacquiao out in this one. It’s beyond what Roach could come up. Mayweather has been trained since he was a small child at boxing, and has learned the craft quite well. And his physical tools make him even better. This fight would be like teacher beating up pupil.

I think it would be a massive slaughter with Pacquiao getting backside kicked by Mayweather. It’s a good thing that they don’t fight. Pacquiao is better off facing Cotto again, winning his 8th world title, and then maybe beating up Edwin Valero for his final fight. Those two fights would be an excellent way for Pacquiao to retire. He doesn’t need Mayweather.

Perimeter skills make Jamison a valuable addition to Cavs

A lot of pre-deadline trade talk centered around Cleveland making a deal for Amar'e Stoudemire. But the Cavs, in the day before the deadline, landed Antawn Jamison from Washington in a three-team deal, and they didn't have to give up prized second-year forward J.J. Hickson to do it.

If Zydrunas Ilgauskas is waived by Washington and eventually returns to Cleveland, the Cavs would have given up only a late first-round pick and some financial flexibility to get Jamison.
More important, Jamison is a better fit in Cleveland than Stoudemire would have been, giving the Cavs a power forward who can shoot from the perimeter.

The way the Cavs have been playing, though, it's not clear that they needed to make a move. They've won 13 straight games (11 of them without Mo Williams), and through Wednesday, Cleveland has the second-best offense in the league, the fifth-best defense, the best record and the best point differential.

They were in a similar position last season, didn't make a move at the deadline and were upset in the conference finals by Orlando. But as we wrote two weeks ago, the Cavs, with their ability to dominate the paint, are better suited to beat both the Magic and the Lakers this season.

Still, they couldn't pass up the opportunity to upgrade at power forward. If there's one weak link in their rotation, it's Hickson. The 21-year-old has been the starter since November, but doesn't play as much as super-sub Anderson Varejao and, to date, the Cavs are better with Hickson on the bench than on the floor.

Hickson factor

A quick look at the Cavs' offensive and defensive efficency with J.J. Hickson on (and off) the court.

Off. Rat. = Points scored per 100 possessions Def. Rat. = Points allowed per 100 possessions

One issue with Jamison, as it would have been with Stoudemire, is defense. In seven of his previous 11 seasons, Jamison has been on a team that ranked in the bottom five in defensive efficiency. And only once has he been on a team that ranked in the top 18. That was as a rookie in Golden State, when the Warriors ranked 12th in the lockout-shortened 1998-99 season.

Team Defensive Efficiency, Antawn Jamison's Career

The Cavs faced a similar situation when they traded for Mo Williams. In Williams' last season in Milwaukee (2007-08), the Bucks were the league's worst defensive team. But Williams came to Cleveland, integrated himself just fine and the Cavs finished second defensively last season.

Also, before he came to Orlando, Rashard Lewis was on nothing but bad defensive teams in Seattle. But playing alongside Dwight Howard and being coached by Stan Van Gundy, Lewis has been a part of one of the best defensive teams in the league over the last three seasons.

The key difference between those additions and Jamison's might one of timing. Williams and Lewis joined their new teams in the offseason and had a full training camp to learn the system.

Speaking of Lewis, he would be Jamison's matchup when the Cavs face their biggest threat in the Eastern Conference. While Dwight Howard was Cleveland's biggest matchup issue in last year's conference finals, Lewis averaged 18.3 points on 49 percent shooting and hit several big shots in that series.

Curiously, though, in his last nine games against Jamison, Lewis has averaged just 12.8 points on 38 percent shooting.

Don't read too much into those stats. Jamison is long and athletic and can probably keep up with Lewis better than a lot of power forwards in this league, but his defensive effort was lacking with the Wizards. Lewis missed a lot of open looks in those games against Jamison.

If Jamison was simply replacing Hickson in the rotation, we might predict that the Cavs' defense wouldn't fall off much. But Ilgauskas' departure (at least for the next month) means Hickson will still play often and Varejao will log major minutes at center. So expect the Cleveland D to suffer somewhat.

Of course, that the Cavs have been able to play top-five defense with Shaquille O'Neal on the floor for 23 minutes a game is proof that coach Mike Brown knows what he's doing. Plus, Jamison should help balance any defensive dropoff with his play on offense.

There's no reason to think that the Cavs -- the best offensive team in the league from Christmas to the All-Star break -- can't get even more efficient.
All stats are through Wednesday, February 17 and were compiled with the help of the NBA and StatsCube.

Klitschko and Chambers bout

The reason I think Klitschko is the better fighter than Haye is because Wladimir is four inches taller than Haye and has a lot longer reach. Haye, at 6’3” (maybe 6’2”), isn’t big enough to beat his opponents without risking having his chin tapped by one of them. But Chambers doesn’t have kind of power to speak of, so the chances are slim that he’s going to be able to knock Wladimir out unless the Ukrainian gets old all of a sudden on March 20th. It could happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it. 

Klitschko, 33, has big power in both hands. You could say that Wladimir has one-punch power when he’s throwing with conviction instead of fighting on his back foot. If Wladimir starts swinging with all his might, this fight will be over very quickly. There’s really no comparison at all between the two fighters. Chambers is like a short, plump looking cruiserweight at 6’1”, facing a towering super heavyweight. I can see Chambers being competitive against a small heavyweight like Haye, but not against a huge one like Wladimir.

Also, Klitschko has much more experience against top level opposition compared to Chambers. Wladimir has been in fights against Corrie Sanders, Lamon Brewster, Chris Byrd, Tony Thompson, Ruslan Chagaev, Sultan Ibragimov, Hasim Rahman, Ray Austin, Jameel McCline, DaVarryl Williamson and Samuel Peter. For his part, Chambers has fought top fighters Alexander Povetkin, Samuel Peter, Calvin Brock, Derric Rossy, Dominick Guinn and Alexander Povetkin. Interestingly enough, Chambers beat journeyman Ross Purity by a 10 round decision in 2005.

Klitschko, in contrast, was stopped by Purity in an 11th round TKO seven years earlier in 1998. In fairness to Klitschko, Purity was a lot younger when he fought Wladimir, facing him at 32, whereas with Chambers he was 39. Also, I saw the Chambers-Purity fight and I thought Purity should have been given the decision. It seemed sad to watch him fight his heart out, land by far the bigger shots and land about as often as Chambers, yet lose the fight, which just so happens to have taken place in Chambers’ home city of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Chambers will probably have difficulties getting past the hard jab of Klitschko. Chambers may have been able to beat 6’7” Ukrainian Dimitrenko in his last fight in July 2009, but it was easier for Chambers in that fight because Dimitrenko wasn’t throwing any jabs whatsoever in the fight, and instead let Chambers inside on him where the American fighter was able to dictate the space. Klitschko won’t allow him to do that without giving up a huge struggle. But I hate to say it, Klitschko is going to bounce the little 209 Chambers around like an old can and stop her.

No matter the trade, teams still looking up at Lakers

Even if the Lakers aren't expected to make a deal this week, they will be a big deal this week. That's because any and all trades conducted by other contenders prior to Thursday's deadline will be done with one team in particular in mind.

As in: Does this make us better than the Lakers?

With a precarious eye toward the postseason and realizing a trip to the NBA Finals perhaps must pass through Los Angeles, a batch of championship dreamers are looking to Laker-proof themselves. Some teams will trade for bigs to counter Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Others will go for defense to throw at Kobe Bryant. Either directly or indirectly, this week is all about the contenders taking stock and figuring out what's needed in order to keep the Lakers' championship streak at one.

"I'm aware of that," said Kobe, during All-Star Weekend, before flashing a smile.

Consider it flattering. Kobe does, Phil Jackson does, the entire Laker organization does. The Lakers are doing their usual brisk walk through the regular season, showing few signs of cracks, except for the one in Kobe's damaged finger. Even with Kobe in a splint, the Lakers haven't suffered much. Besides, everyone's aware of what they're capable of doing once Kobe heals completely. So the arms race is on, with just a few days left before the bidding is closed and we get to see what everyone's taking into the postseason.

By getting Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood from the Wizards, the Mavericks admitted their pre-trade team, in the edited words of owner Mark Cuban, "stunk." As a title contender, anyway. The Mavericks believe they can throw triple 7-footers (Dirk Nowitzki, Haywood and Erick Dampier) at the Lakers and even up the size issue. They like the idea of rotating Haywood and Dampier next to Nowitzki. You can understand why. Damp and Haywood can grab 10 rebounds each. They can block shots and use up fouls. And they can make it hard for Gasol and Bynum. Haywood is playing for cash this summer, too, so he has that little extra something going for him.

Here's the red flag, though: Haywood has never in his professional life been put in a position of real pressure. And the Mavericks are also the first team to count on him for anything special. Forget Gasol, for a moment; can Haywood deal with Tim Duncan? Kenyon Martin? 

Butler brings a shooting touch, which is important because whomever guards Kobe needs to make Kobe work harder on the other end. Butler dropped 18 points on the Lakers recently and he's capable of forcing Kobe -- a great defender when he wants to be -- to spend precious energy as a stopper (unless Ron Artest checks Butler). But, here comes another red flag: Butler and Haywood have two months to mesh with new surroundings and prepare for April and beyond. Meanwhile, the core of the Lakers has been intact for nearly three seasons.

Who else? The Cavaliers are the hottest team in the league and still feel the need to load up. Obviously, the priority is to surround LeBron James with enough talent to make it tough for him to walk away this summer. But their talks with the Suns over Amar'e Stoudemire are also an attempt to throw another big in the direction of Dwight Howard and Kevin Garnett first and, if successful, have something for the Lakers should L.A. reach the Finals. The general feeling within the organization is this: LeBron can neutralize if not conquer any non-center in the Cavs' path. Adding a quality big man who can score could put them over the top.

Another red flag: Stoudemire is hardly known for his defense, and anyway, how's that going to work out with he and Shaquille O'Neal, given that it didn't when they teamed last year in Phoenix?

Nutshell, then: On the assumption that Kobe's body is finished betraying him for the season, the Lakers remain well equipped to deal with, if not defeat, the small handful of contenders trying to improve on the fly. The only true tender spot with the Lakers is the point guard position, where Derek Fisher, can we delicately say, looks better in a crisp suit as leader of the players union than starting point guard of the defending champs. And yet, given his history of clutchness, Fisher tends to save his best for last.

"We try not to worry about what other teams are doing," Kobe said. "We feel if we play the style of basketball we're accustomed to playing, then people have to adjust to us. Not the other way around."

What Kobe is saying to teams anxious to deal is this: Make your move. And make it a good one.

Westbrook ‘not sure’ if he’ll be back with Eagles

Brian Westbrook wants to play football in 2010. Whether that happens with the Eagles, he isn’t quite sure.

In a recent interview with Dan Rather of HDNet’s Dan Rather Reports, Westbrook made it clear that it’s his goal to return next season after suffering two concussions last season. Westbrook is under contract with the Eagles, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be back.

“I’m not sure. That’s one of those things that really is up to them,” Westbrook told Rather. “I’m under contract another year, and I would love to be in Philadelphia. There’s no other team that I would love to play for more than the Philadelphia Eagles. But it’s a situation where in the NFL, younger, cheaper is better for teams. It’s one of those things. It’s part of the business. I experienced it when I was younger, and I experience a different aspect now. You have to try and find out, for the team, what’s better for them.”

According to Philly.com, Westbrook is due $7.25 million next season. They’ve also posted Rather’s interview with Westbrook, which never aired.

Westbrook, who will turn 31 early next season, added that he’s “100 percent sure” he won’t decide to retire before he begins his offseason training regimen. He also spoke at length earlier this week about his concussions, admitting during a radio interview that he rushed back too soon.