Whilst I like most fans remain utterly clueless as to where this fight will take place, I do remain confident of how the fight will unfold. First we need to look at the pair’s last efforts.
Froch is fresh off the back of a poor fight against the elusive Andre ‘The Matrix’ Dirrell. I say he is fresh because in all honesty the cobra barely broke sweat as he tried to catch the freewheeling Dirrell. More than anything the fight resembled someone running round his or her kitchen, desperately trying to stamp on a mouse. Whilst Froch was able to stand on his tail a couple of times he remained far from squishing Dirrell. As for the split decision result, I can see how some could argue for Dirrell, but in truth I had Froch the victor by two rounds.
Kessler took on the undefeated Olympic gold medallist Andre ‘SOG’ Ward. At this point I will have to hold my hands up and admit that I thought this fight had come to soon for the young American. I thought Kessler would survive the early rounds with some accurate counter punching and then walk Ward down in the later rounds. Frankly I could not have been more wrong! Ward showed that he is the real deal in a performance that was both mature and vicious. For 11 brutal rounds (the fight was stopped in the 11th due to a cut sustained by Kessler in an accidental clash of heads) the Dane was systematically out boxed and bullied by the aggressive American. Many fans have argued that Ward was a bit free with his use of the head, but in truth I think on that night the outcome would have remained the same regardless. My big disappointment was that Kessler for all his experience allowed Ward to bully him like this without the slightest retaliation. I can’t imagine Froch would have taken too many of the head butts before a ‘stray’ shot found his opponents cup.
To sum up their respective fights, neither fighter was anywhere near his best and Kessler was arguably at his worst. The big difference is that while Froch barely felt leather, Kessler was cut to ribbons. How significant could this ware and tear be come April 17th?
I ultimately see this fight going only one way. Froch will get a TKO somewhere from the 8th round onwards. Why do I think this?
As much as it could be argued that Kessler has declined since his loss to the now retired Joe Calzaghe, I think he still has the skills to compete at the highest level. This fight is massive for him as a lot of fans are beginning to say that is he in decline. How will he react to this kind of pressure? I think he will come out cautiously trying to keep Froch at range with his familiar one-two combinations. Froch will not relent however and will keep up a ferocious pace until eventually Kessler will be drawn into a war. It is possible that Froch will try to rough him up a bit after seeing the Ward fight, but this would be ill advised as in Kessler’s town he is more likely to be punished. I see Kessler being able to keep the fight the way he wants it for maybe the first 4 rounds but then it’s off to war. Expect Froch to draw the Dane in by unloading to the body in the first stanza.
Against Calzaghe and Ward, Kessler appeared to virtually concede the fight after running out of ideas at the mid-way stage. In this fight there is too much at stake for this kind of concession. I fully expect a rallying Kessler to press into the centre of the ring and try to exploit the openings that Froch always presents. Will he be successful? I don’t think so. I think they tough it out for 3-4 rounds Pascal vs. Froch style, until the Cobra lands one clean to introduce Kessler to the canvass. It’s then up to Kessler. Is he mentally tough enough to pick himself up off the floor and try to box his way back into the fight? Again I think not.
For me the real difference will be Froch’s undeniable will to win. He simply does not understand how to lose. Kessler may well put the Nottingham man down, but he has shown before that he can rise back up to finish the job.
However this fight goes, it is bound to be exciting and definitely required viewing.
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